Aeronautical Engineering Dissertation

Running head: SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 1

Survival in the Atmosphere: The Rise of the Aeronautical Meteorology and its Revolutionary

Role in Aviation

By

……………………

A Research Project Proposal

Submitted to the Worldwide Campus

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements

of Course ASCI 490, The Aeronautical Science Capstone Course

for the Bachelor of Science in Aeronautics Degree

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

January 2015

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 2

ABSTRACT

The field of aviation is a major customer of meteorological services. Numerous historical break-

through developments that have been marked in weather forecast have majorly been for the sole

enhancement of meteorological assistance to aviation (Evans, 2015). A rapid advancement of

aircraft designs and the technology of air travel coupled with the incessant need for ever more

safe and efficient air traffic operations led to a proportional requirement for an accurate and

safety-centered meteorological services and products. These developments have been in humble

leaps, from the ancient pre-flight face to face briefing to more technical lightening- detection

networks and weather radars that promote forecasting of short-term movements of thunderstorms

(Fujita & McCarthy, 1990). Thus, mitigating the adverse disruption of airline operations. This

paper, therefore, investigates the development of aeronautical meteorology and how it assures a

higher survival ratio in the atmosphere during powered flights.

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 3

CHAPTER ONE

Introduction

The dissertation on a general note seeks to illustrate a new methodology for

contemplation of the role played by science in the mechanized and technologically advanced

aspects of our society. In the case study particularly how aeronautic meteorology has impacted

the aviation industry. A close review of the history of aeronautic meteorology reveals how very

influential and powerful material effects can be manufactured through an integration of robust

systems of technology, with all-encompassing but small noticeable surveillance system of the

environment. The paper mainly investigates and exhibits how ancient few groupings of

determined, unheard experts, synchronizing and harmonizing the activities of the commercial

firms, government bureaus, and academic departments revolutionized aeronautical meteorology

from a mere curiosity science into a compelling body of knowledge. The body plays vital for the

managing of the operations of airlines in aviation hence promoting survival rates in the air during

powered flights.

It is in the early 20

th

century that this dissertation has its bedrock of history; as the period

when aeronautic meteorology underwent significant uplifts. In fact, meteorology became vital in

the management of the global affairs long even before the world discovered it. However, to the

sunset of the 20

th

century; the atmospheric science developed in portions on the know-how of

customary dealings of aeronautic meteorology to manufacture theories of climate change that

have become a bone of contention culturally. It has ultimately rendered it a dominant subject of

critical dialogues. At the beginning of the century, the principles of aeronautic meteorology

operated under the disguise of habitual forecasting and measurement of weather that facilitated

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 4

aviation which was environmentally delicate to continue in their operations. The early 20

th

century was a period of surviving and withstanding heights.

As the enhancement of the aeronautic engineering made the upper space more graciously

accessible, experts of weather unearthed novel types of meteorological circumstances at altitude.

For instance, clouds that became frozen as soon as they landed on the aircraft wings and slender

and thin bands of 200 miles per hour winds that became frozen as soon as they landed on the

aircraft wings. Even the maneuvers that appeared to be easy as just taking a flight through a

stretch of unbroken cloud proved to be disastrous; numerous pilots died of the causes which were

psychological. For example, “death spiral” were discovered.

The flight industry had become more organized than ever. They regularly turned to

meteorologists for counsel and guidance regarding training, so that they could cope with the

hazards of space. In few years, the aeronautic engineering, especially in aviation, had solely

displaced shipping and agriculture to be the primary client and most powerful user of the

knowledge of meteorology. Interests in aeronautic meteorology were surging from all spheres of

society. The Science Advisory Board did many types of research around the globe and on top of

the hierarchy was meteorology in nexus with air travel. It ultimately transformed the general

perceptions and notions of the public on this subject and undeniably changed the manner in

which society interacted with the weather.

An elaborate knowledge of the contemporary science of the atmosphere needs the

tracking of past historical previews of aeronautic meteorology. Since the first hot air balloon

flights in the year 1978; it is conceivable that aeronautics and aerology have been connected

from the commencing of the human powered flights. Although the hot air balloons were widely

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 5

used in collecting samples of air to be used in the weather forecast, their persistent use in

justified meteorology research in aviation (Ellrod & Knapp, 1992). The enhancement of guided,

powered flights at the commencement of the 20

th

century both lighter than air ship like dirigibles

of Count Zeppelin and heavier than aircraft like the Flyer Wright started to alter this relationship.

The manufacture of powered flights revolutionized meteorology from a minute research

interest inside a scattered science into the nucleus of aeronautic engineering. One factor that

fueled this paradigm shift was the Great War. Among many weapons and ballistics of war, to

undo the enemy aviation intelligence and the capacity to launch attacks from the air proved to be

crucial. However, as the United States realized in its war against Japan, the unpredictable nature

of the weather in the upper atmosphere rendered this weaponry unproductive (Friedman, 1990).

Essentially, to counter this weakness, nations began to invest massively in aeronautic

engineering.

They quickly employed services of meteorologists in the front lines of war zones and

started training more others. America had to respond or be in danger of being left out and down

in the superiority wars (Gary, 2007). At first, the States had only a few groupings of unheard

municipal weather forecasters and almost no researcher in the meteorological department. But as

the trend emerged, the United States trained more and more young meteorologists and mobilized

them in the army to handle aviation operations.

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 6

Historical Background of the Renaissance of Aeronautical Meteorology

In the United States, the research in meteorology was limited since meteorology was a

function under the oversight of the Weather Bureau that in turn fell under the purview of the

agricultural department (Meyer, 2000). The headquarters of the Weather Bureau was located in

Washington DC, and it had acknowledged that they were responsible for informing the public of

the expected meteorological conditions. However, it was customary that their core responsibility

was to offer forecasts that are centered on agriculture. It was propelled by the ideology that it

was an agency of the government. Therefore, results had to be practical and immediate. The rest

of the two were very minute “weather services” that were managed and operated by the

department of war and the department of the navy (Gary, 2007). They, however, were tailored to

provide specifically specialized weather predictions for navy and army units.

All their research was aimed at improving the operational capacities of the military. As

stated in the introduction, the military use of aeronautic services was a dramatic increase in the

era of the great war. Due to the critical role played by meteorology in maintaining the cabin crew

and airplanes safe; the Weather Bureau was given a budget of up to 100,000 US dollars, to

establish aeronautic stations and synchronize services with the navy and war department once the

United States went to war (Nebeker, 1995). It was the genesis of “flying weather forecasts” for

the postal mails and the military in the year 1918. Even after the era of the post-war, and after the

increase in funding for the weather bureau, the Bureau did not make any remarkable progress in

intensifying its services. Unlike the governments in Europe that were working incredibly hard to

establish meteorological services and civil airways that offered support to them.

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 7

The condition was best remarked by one secretary Brook Charles of the American

Meteorological Society (AMS). He once commented that the Belgians became very “astonished”

on learning that the yearly budget of the Weather Bureau was just only 2 million US dollars

(Kristine, 2008). Volunteer or paid, the personnel of the Weather Bureau was devoted to

providing the finest possible forecast of weather to a wide assortment of commercial, agricultural

and industrial interests. The early 1920’s saw the Weather Bureau’s regional offices come up

with written forecasts and weather maps for the public and distributed them to main outlets of the

media. Therefore, municipal stations in the locality had the capacity to predict and give prior

warnings to hazardous conditions of the weather to up to 20-mile radius.

CHAPTER TWO

Institutionalization of Aeronautical Meteorology

The meteorologists of the airspace soon after the first power flight was launched made

efforts to go and discover friendly skies. Ideally, this was the period of the early 1930’s. Their

efforts were hinged in two major inventions. Firstly, there was the rampant surveillance of the

upper air and the customized practice of the knowledge acquired to transcode the data collected

from such monitoring into significant statements on the behavior of the atmosphere; therefore

connecting the research with the management of flights (Knowles, 1969). For the smooth

coordination of these tasks, each was delegated. The Weather Bureau was tasked with

surveillance of the upper air which became a vital facet of the ever growing influence of the

Bureau in the aviation industry (Gary, 2007). Rapid technology innovations in the theory of

meteorology significantly guided the progress of this surveillance network. Not only did they

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 8

offer guidance but also did give substantial data that provided fodder for new forecasting and

theorizing.

In the United States, around 1870 to 1920; the Weather Bureau was the undisputed most

fundamental institution of aviation meteorology (Kristine, 2008). Scholars such as Carl Gusstaf

Rossby tried all their means to develop an approach where the Bureau utilized the theoretical

framework to come up with viable forecasts. However, it was clear that this area could not be a

monopoly. There was a sharp increase in the number of academic researchers who were

interested in developing theories about the upper air. Their research revealed the important

epistemological, educational and social gaps that existed in this field of study by the very

academia that was inhabited in the Weather Bureau.

The above prompted the pioneers of the theories to reinvent the bureau and rebrand it to

be a ‘modern’ scientific entity. Theorists advocated for the hiring of technocrats that possessed

graduate degrees and were of exceptional academic merit and that such men to be appointed to

the leading role in the operation of the Bureau. However, the real situation was that the young

meteorologists rarely found rewards. On the contrary, they were tasked to give tuition classes to

the senior meteorologists of vast many years’ experiences in the novel technical methods

(Meyer, 2000). Arguably, this they did with barely any incentive to them.

It is important to note that the Bureau indeed had a well-developed institution

characterized by a culture that was distinct from the prioritizing of abstract and research theory.

That was a central feature of the crop of academic meteorologists that mushroomed around the

school of Bergen emigrants. A new era was dawning. A group of self-styled engineers from the

new institutions of higher learning specifically the meteorology program of the Department of

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 9

aeronautic engineering flocked the Bureau. The program was piloted both at the MIT and the

American Meteorology Society.

Rossby once again was at the center of driving the objective transition of these

institutions towards the achievement of remarkable excellence in the capacities of theoretical

research. As a professor in the MIT program, he solely oversaw the shift and transformation of

the program, from just what it was; a mere program to an advanced scientific research institute.

In 1919, the American Meteorology Society was founded to provide a platform where the well-

taught graduates would exercise their knowledge (Friedman, 1990). As years passed by, the

society became increasingly formal, professionally organized and around 1925 it even offered a

parallel although not independent institutional services of the Weather Bureau. Moreover, many

of its human capital were also ladies and gentlemen of the Bureau. Through the motivation of

Rossby, the AMS commenced offering platforms where issues of enhancement and improving

the meteorology theory, at the same time it even in its journals gave a section for the publication

of research. Mainly done independently of the monthly journal of the Bureau.

The professor, Mr. Rossby was not done, he urged the AMS to form an award to

distinguish and appreciate young researchers who were making a massive pioneering selfless

contribution into the arena of aeronautic meteorology. To fully come to the understanding of

how meteorology was infused into the industry of powered flights, it is paramount that we

manage to familiarize ourselves with the institutions these developments bankrolled on. It is vital

also to establish and explore the institutional culture that offered the serene environment for the

fruitful advancement of the aviation meteorology. Therefore, this chapter labors to show how the

enhancement of theories by the influential academic scholars reshaped the manner in which

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 10

weather was predicted, conceptualized and observed. In the United States, that had an impact in

the aviation industry setting.

The Reformation of the Weather Bureau for Aviation

Rossby’s most significant contribution to the aeronautics engineering arena was the

campaign to shift the practices of the Bureau to being more institutionally centered and

motivated (Meyer, 2000). He, therefore, coined a new area where meteorology was no longer an

ancillary and subordinate afterthought for aviation operations but now an infrastructural science

well integrated into to the aeronautical engineering what is today acknowledged as the aeronautic

meteorology. As Rossby worked at the MIT, interests in flying and in specific the appetite and

the absolute need to stay safe and survive in the atmosphere all pointed to the need for improving

the services of forecasting offered by the Weather aviation industry. Reformations quickly

sprung up. The values of the Bergen School of thought values were embraced and constantly

adhered to. By 1926, Rossby had rejoined the Bureau at this time as the chief assistant director or

research. Under his watch, he oversaw the implementation of the Air Commerce Act of 1926.

The Act obligated the Weather Bureau to give weather warnings and forecasts that would be

crucial in aiding the pilots from unforeseeable air weather hazards.

The above sole development was one of a single step that ultimately shaped the whole

history of aeronautic meteorology. Things were never the same again. Powered flights grew in

abnormal proportions since the risks of crashing had been significantly reduced, at least not

because of weather clichés. Due to the increased number of flights, and an equally increased

need for safer flights, it is safe to say that the Weather Bureau in the late 1920s was indeed

overwhelmed. Their capacity could not contain this growing industry. From time to time they

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 11

struggled to give sufficient weather forecasts and observations for the airways of the nation. As

though this was not enough, in the year 1929, there was an economic crisis that adversely dented

almost crippling this Bureau. Its budget, for instance, was slashed down by forty-five percent

(Gary, 2007).

Independent of these catastrophic cutbacks, the Bureau was subjected to the novel,

humiliating disasters. On the 4

th

date of April 1933, the Navy powered flight USS Akron was

involved in a crash. All those on board, 73, died including Mr. Adams Moffet William, who at

that time was the head of Navy’s Bureau (Friedman, 1990). The hearings of Congress that

followed this incident acted as a postmortem of the Weather Bureau. It revealed the

shortcomings of the Bureau, and its inadequacies ranging from credibility issues. The future of

the Bureau looked grim, doomed and non-existing. At the height of highlighting the challenges

faced by this field of public science, Charles Mitchell, one of the most adored and celebrated

forecasters battled senators who called for the disbandment of the Bureau.

During the hearings, one advocate Mr. Billy Mitchell posited that the services of aviation

meteorology ought to be removed from the department of government that was responsible for

growing of potatoes, onions and such things and on the contrary, the military ought to run this

operation (Kristine, 2008). Arguably, this was a taste of the mockery the Bureau was subject.

The hearing proposed and established a sub-committee to come to proper recommendations to

improve the standards of aeronautical meteorology in the country. The committee was swift to

recommend an adoption of “air mass analysis methods.” The committee clearly stated while

advocating this approach that it would practically guarantee unprecedented improvements in

both the reliability and accuracy of the forecasting services.

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 12

Since this method called for an upper air data analysis, the committee recommended that

the navy and army were to provide daily measurements of aerology during their systemic

training flights. The committee report commended the Bureau’s novel research developments in

the analysis of air mass and even proposed for doubling of their efforts in this regard (Gary,

2007). Finally, the committee recommended the initiation of a system that would train

postgraduates on aeronautics that would later be taken to serve the Bureau. Essentially, this was

important to ensure that all meteorologists were well-versed in the modern scientific methods

and that they had a world class appreciation of physics and mathematical concepts that would

ooze proficiency in the forecasting art.

Conclusion

During the period since the Wright brothers launched the first powered flight,

meteorology had to develop rapidly its art to match the needs of aeronautics engineering needs

for a safer aviation industry. Carl Rossby pioneered these efforts. Through his work at the MIT,

Weather Bureau and his colleagues and students developed meteorology as a research discipline

and an academic subject that could aid infrastructural science such as the science of aeronautic.

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 13

CHAPTER THREE

Maintenance of Schedule: Aeronautical Meteorology in the US Airline Operations

In the late 1930s, powered flights were a nerve-wrenching experience. Even the relatively

small aircraft that had piston engines and that flew in the low altitudes subjected their passengers

to vibrations, turbulence, and such noise that the fact that you were a mere passenger; that alone

drained you physically (Knowles, 1969). Taking flights was seen to be so grueling and

demanding that one Senator Franklin Roosevelt claimed that he had been physically challenged

when he was airlifted to Chicago to attend an acceptance ceremony for the nominations of the

Democratic party.

The flight from Albany to Chicago faced significant turbulence and robust headwinds,

delaying their flight in the air for over two and half hours. All the passengers and even the crew

on board developed nausea and vomited. However how much Senator Roosevelt tried Tom

convince the newspaper that he had found the flight interesting; he never took any powered flight

for the next decade (Meyer, 2000). Historians of weather became increasingly concerned.

William Meyers was the first to calculate and arrived at, that weather hazards lead to cancellation

of close to twenty percent of all scheduled air trips (Dutton, 1970). The aviation industry now

faced devaluation due to its high unreliability of its services that outdid its greatest asset, speed.

The National Air Transport’s manager of operations, Mr. Wesley Smith, once said that

“The chief danger and the grandest obstacle to the normal operating of powered flights on the

schedule are the weather” his assertions were not rhetoric (Ellrod & Knapp, 1992, p. 54). He had

on first hand experienced and barely survived the dangers posed by low clouds, ice, fog, and

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 14

thunderstorms. In December 1920 while trying to dodge fogy airspace he hit into the crest of a

hill. Miraculously he crawled out of the burning wreckage alive and kicked.

Through the hazards of the weather the entire commerce of the airwaves was under a

serious viability crisis. It was because of the inability to come up with cures of weather hazards

had reduced flights into treacherous ventures and their scheduled bar high unpredictable and

undependable. As the world war waged on, it became clearer that the knowledge to cope with the

weather was a vital thread in the tailoring of the civil aviation industry from just an entertainment

sport into infrastructure (Gary, 2007). Whenever the weather circumstances were untenable,

barnstormers would make impromptu landings in fields.

However, with the advent of commercial planes, the need to distribute safe, dependable

and unswerving services between terminals on a pre- fixed schedule would not allow such

landings. As the prominent scholar Mr. Courtwright David Remarked, aviation had become an

infrastructure; “a taken for granted, commonly utilized means of the system of transportation” in

two stages (Kristine, 2008). The first of the stage was the growing reliability and safety that

happened between the late 1930s and 1940s. The other stage was, becoming ubiquitous and

cheap that took place after the advent of economy class travel and jets in the early 1960s and

1970s.

Aeronautic engineers and historians have identified numerous primary factors that aided

to dependable powered flight. Chief amongst those factors, they highlight stronger airframes,

strict regulations from the government, systems of navigation and improved new genres of

instruments of flight. However they; to some extent don’t pay homage or give meteorology the

deserved attention on the role it played, commonly regarding weather as a type of unmanageable,

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 15

inevitable force. Implicit in these development theories is the description of escape. That as new

inventions of powerful planes set in, powered flights made an escape from the gravity of

weather, that weather was no longer a threat and therefore, could not constrict the operations of

the aircraft. To that fact, they cite that fewer crashes are caused by weather nowadays that it was

in the 1920s. Truth be told, it was more than just great planes that led to all this.

This chapter investigates how meteorology aided aircraft to reconsider weather, not as a

monster obstacle that was required to be done away with but an always varying set of

circumstances that sometimes made the air travel more efficient and sometimes acted as a

constraint to air transport operations. It is the assertion of this paper that the knowledge of

meteorology allowed the airline to become flexible entities that could utilize the benefit of cloud

breaks and tailwinds while diminishing the hazards of icing, fogged airports, and headwinds. The

airlines had contracted the services of weather experts to offer services needed to make the

flights reliable and safe. Airline meteorologists that were trained at Caltech, MIT and some few

number of flight schools were few and by July 1940, they were less than 94 in the United States.

The Impact Early Meteorologists had in Aeronautic Engineering

These early meteorologists played a vital role in the growth and development of

aeronautic engineering especially in the field of air travel. For instance, they judged the weather

conditions, describing the present and potential imminent weather conditions to pilots (Gary,

2007). They also gave advice on how management and routing of flights to the dispatchers. They

were involved in spreading of the advanced knowledge of meteorology to pilots, engineers and

other human personnel crew and flight attendants. It led to the better understanding of this

personnel on adverse weather conditions. Although they were limited to the roles of specialists in

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 16

technical weather duties, the aeronautic engineers internally emerged as the core daily operators.

On a day to day basis, flight companies used their experts in meteorology to advertise their

planes as a modern, efficient and safe mode of transport.

The needs of meteorology in aviation had also led up to the shaping of a culture of

research about the aeronautic. Commencing with the early pioneers, like Carl- Gustaf Rossby’s

achievements while working at the airline of Western Air Express in 1927 aided the launch of

numerous leading careers of many American researchers (Friedman, 1990). The increasing

interaction between the industrial Aeronautics of the aviation industry and the academic clichés

had an impact in that; the airlines were amongst the pioneering American, who used the Bergen

School, with its prominence on models of geography and calculations of numerical in forecasting

of the weather.

The Legal Framework of the Aeronautic Meteorology

The Federal Aviation Act of 1958 invalidated the Civil Aeronautics Administration and

created the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) (Lowenfeld, 1972). In supplementing, the

Act moved the power to legislate regulations of aviation from the Civil Aeronautics Board to the

FAA. This Act accords the FAA singular and exclusive obligation for the nation's civil-military

system of air traffic control and air navigation. Currently, the aeronautics guidelines are

recognized as the FARs (Federal Aviation Regulations).

The Federal Aviation Act of 1958 was a legislation of congress that formed the agency of

the federal aviation. (Subsequently; referred to as the; Federal Aviation Administration or the

FAA Agency). It set aside the Civil Aeronautics Administration that was its predecessor. The

Act gave authority to the FAA to manage and make regulations that would ensure a guaranteed

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 17

safety era in the industry of aviation, and synchronizing a coherent use of the airspace by both

the military and civilian commercial powered flight (Kreindler, 1994).

Aviation in the United States was not regulated by the legislation of the Air Commerce

Act in 1926. The Act generated an Aeronautic Branch inside the United States Department of

Trade with supervisory authority over civil aviation. In full recognition of the vital nexus

between meteorology and aviation, Congress approved the legislation of the Air Commerce Act

(Dutton, 1970). The above law obligated the Weather Bureau to issue weather forecasts, reports,

and potential warnings to advance the efficiency and safety of aviation in the United States.

However, since this phenomenon was in its incubation stage, the ancient forecasters had limited

knowledge of weather intrigues that influenced flight namely, clouds, fog, icing, turbulence and

thunderstorms (Lowenfeld, 1972).

In the case of accidents and plane crashes due to weather conditions, Title 49 Subtitle II

chapter 11 subchapter II § 1114 of the United States Code outlines all the legal information

regarding Disclosure, availability, and use of information (Kreindler, 1994). This code states the

recordings and imagery obtained is and will not be released till the investigation is complete.

Also, it discusses the use of trade secrets and how they will be handled. Trade secrets are

information or data the other people outside of the organization can see to include processes and

uses of said data.

In general terms, the growth and development of the aviation industry coupled with a

corresponding upward growth in meteorology use by the airlines, in particular, aided the setting

up of the first academic department of aeronautic meteorology in the US. For instance, the most

popular textbook of the time was Byer Horace’s Synoptic and Aeronautic Meteorology. It acted

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 18

as the course guide for lecturers who taught the airliner human resource before turning out to be

a normative handbook. That offered structures of the way meteorologists studied the concepts of

imagining the atmosphere and its behavior during training (Knowles, 1969).

The economic support and a culture of the prestige of the meteorological industry,

therefore, aided to influence and inform the rapid development of Aeronautic Meteorology in

America, during the 20

th

century into a worldwide reputable and famous discipline of research

anchored around three dimensions of models of physics of the atmosphere.

Beating the Weather odds; Present Day Airlines

If you regularly fly at one point, you could have had an experience where half an hour

before a flight is set to depart, a plane pulls into the gate as passengers begin streaming at the

area designated for waiting (Meyer, 2000). Later on, just before takeoff, you are informed that

the airport has been closed down due to reasons of inclement weather, for example, a snowstorm.

That is why; a retired senior manager of services of weather for the American Airlines Mr.

Qualley Warren once remarked that “a flight of an airplane is like a grand puzzle.” “With

numerous pieces on the move; that is of course not forgetting the cabin and flight crews” (Meyer,

2000).

Other factors that may accompany storm’s effect are ice or heavy snow. The above will

prevent the personnel manning the airport from going to work. Even though the unfavorable

weather conditions may not lead to a complete shutdown of the airport; indeed the diminished

and poor visibility of the atmosphere caused by foggy elements will ultimately slow down the

number of flights that can take off or land per hour. Mr. Warren Qualley terms this as “due to

unfavorable weather conditions; we face flight delays or cancellations. Thus different pieces of

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 19

the puzzle have a chance of ending up at a wrong airstrip or airport.” The crew of the flight

ambushed in Providence is the perfect illustration of this.

Over the years, there has been a paradigm shift of aeronautic meteorology from the

prediction of the weather along routes and at the airports to aiding the airlines in getting solutions

to the complex puzzles of bad weather that face them (Gary, 2007). In the history of air travel the

American airline was the first to cancel flights due to unfavorable weather conditions. They

realized was less costly and that quickly after Normandy resumed, the airline was able to recoup

and blow back the lost profits.

In the present modern setting, it’s a customary routine that the meteorologists would

furnish meteorological odds to airlines that managers of the airline may utilize to calculate the

finest estimate of the cost of the various decisions at stake (Kristine, 2008). The airline’s flight

crew is the major meteorologist’s clients. However, more people rely on and depend on their

services like for example those who are tasked with notification of passengers of flights that are

canceled and the whole rebooking process.

Cancellations and delays are costly for both airlines and passengers. For instance, Larsen

Tulinda, the president of an aeronautic firm specialized in the analysis of operation; masFlight

reckons that for the winter of 2014-2015 all the way to the 5

th

of March 2015, her corporation

made calculations that airlines in the States terminated 75,000 flights due to meteorological

conditions that affected up to 6.2 million passengers. MasFlight makes estimations that the cost

was a total of $380 million for the airlines and an estimated $6 billion for the affected

passengers. These costs include expenses such as taxis, meals, bookings of hotels that add up to a

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 20

quarter of the passengers’ expenses. Lost productivity calculates the other three-quarters of the

passengers' costs.

At around 1978, the forecasters of airlines used to issue weather predictions for each and

every airport the American flights were destined for and also an alternate landing destination

(Friedman, 1990). However, today, pilots and airlines often depend on the foreign weather

services or the NWS on out of the United States flights to provide the weather forecasts of the

airport they intend to land and the meteorological conditions along the way. In the daily

management of flight operations, aeronautic meteorology aids the airline companies to save on

fuel to a large extent by demarcating the finest routes to take to avoid obstacles to smooth air

travel. Obsatcles like headwinds and the jet stream winds moving at 100mph at a height above

sea level of close to 20,000 feet (Vespignani, 2009). Conversely, the aeronautic meteorologists

aid the airlines to save on time by informing the cabin crew on the places they can hold up a ride

on jet stream breezes wafting in the bearing they want to go.

Miller Mark, the General Manager and Vice President of Decision Support at WSI, that

deals with weather operations for numerous airlines, remarks that “during the times when a

grand weather incident like the tornado or the main storm during winter is potentially threatening

one of our airline’s major hub, it usually has an intense bearing, on the whole, aviation system”

(Kristine, 2008). For instance, for the WSI they commence the issuance of outlooks of the

potential perils of the five days period. As the time narrows to a span of 48 hours, the airlines are

now in their estimation required to consider decisions about having the flights canceled.

Larsen explains that masFlight estimates that the cost of abandoning a flight of

international status is close up to 40,000 US dollars. Abandoning mainland municipal flights add

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 21

up to 6,000 US dollars, and that of national airlines flight may total up to 1,050 dollars (Benét,

2014). As Curtis Rick, the Chief Aeronautic Meteorologist at Southwest Airline reckons “Crews

and dispatchers are anxious about individual flights” (Benét, 2014). Therefore, our duty is to

ensure that air travels in these airlines are running as effectively and efficiently as needed.

It is done through the persistent value addition from the statistical point of view. Qualley

Warren in making a summary of the functions of Aeronautic meteorologists; he reckons that “it

is about the creation of exemplary services and products that focus on specific clients, in this

instance the field of commerce aviation” (Benét, 2014). For operation managers, pilots, airport

personnel, senior management, reservation managers and dispatchers the last thing they want to

hear is an imminent weather calamity about to rock an airplane. They want to know, where, how

bad, when and what.”

Today’s Aeronautic Meteorological Centers

In the present day, the questions of whether to make a flight or which flight route to take

are inquiries that planners of air traffic and pilots make constantly and persistently thought the

day to day operations. With the help of aeronautic meteorology, numbers of commercial flights

that have crisscrossed the space have hit a record high. And it’s no surprise that the industry of

aviation is predicting the numbers to surge up even further.

NOAA’S National Weather Service’s utilizes an amalgamation of skilled meteorologists

and the state of art technology to create forecasts of weather in aviation for United States flights

and air traffic all over the world (Meyer, 2000). In each Nation Weather Services office, there

exists a team of the aeronautic meteorological forecast. Each team consists of about 120

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 22

municipal offices of weather forecasts; Alaska Aviation Weather Unit and the Aviation Weather

Centre in Kansas City (Meyer, 2000). The AWC gives notices of cautions that cover the entire

United States and encompass the vast quota of the North Atlantic and North Pacific airspace

below 13.7 km. That is about forty-five thousand feet. The AWC also offers weather prediction

to aircraft users internationally for airspace that is above 7.6 km around the world.

The AAWU in Anchorage does weather forecasting over Bearing Sea, North Pacific

OCEAN, Arctic Ocean and Alaska, also covering a big part of Russia’s northeast. In Central

Pacific, Weather Forecast Hawaii, Honolulu provides meteorological warnings. The officers and

staff members of Weather Forecast offer approximately 4,000 meteorological forecasts in a span

of 24 hours (Kristine, 2008). Its 122 branch offices provide five hundred and fifty-seven airports

with up to two thousand five hundred aeronautic meteorological forecasts and almost one

thousand three hundred in flight forecasts each single day. In coupled efforts, both the AAWU

and the AWC provide 275 meteorological products on a day to day basis.

The AWC slights give more than 8000 products of a graphic nature for icing,

thunderstorm, and turbulence. They are then utilized by the aeronautic industry especially the

airlines to compliment basic aviation weather forecasts. The National Weather Service also

control about twenty-one (CWSU) that is Center Wealth Service Unit at the administration of the

Federal Aviation (FAA) space flight course management across the United States. NOAA

weather forecast officers at CWSUs personally offer directions to air supervisors about nasty

unfavorable weather conditions as they unfold.

National Weather Service weather forecasters utilize satellite images circling the world.

Real-time meteorological data from Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) units, live

SURVIVAL IN THE ATMOSPHERE 23

feed meteorological data from Doppler radar and prototype arithmetical data from NOAA’s

Centers for prediction of the environment at airports in America to produce weather products of

aviation (Gary, 2007). Another fundamental role played by the ASOS is that it generates updates

about relevant information about weather in spans of a minute. The information provided ranges

from, the speed of the wind, precipitation and cloud heights. This information is accessible to

cabin and flight crews at all specific times. Other systems have also been developed by the

Nation Weather Service to draw up and enhance communication and forecasting about weather

that may affect aviation. Some of these tools include:

The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

The Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) utilizes amalgamation of

software that permits weather forecasters from the CWSU, Canada, AWC, and the commercial

airlines to deliberate thunderstorm predictions in an Internet dialog room, delivering viewpoints

every two hours (Kristine, 2008). The drive of the CCFP is to aid air transportation executives

diminish weather-related flight interruptions and cancellations and advance airline fuel

productivity.

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Conclusion

It is undeniable fact that practices of aeronautic engineering have become influential, and

weather forecasting has camped in the echelons of the airports. Due to this development, there

has been a change in the knowledge that enables us to make the operation of our aeronautic

products like airplanes and jets safer in the atmosphere. This science mostly affects the very

fundamental safety of our lives during air travel. It even maintains and builds our environment.

Tracing the rise and modification of the science of aeronautic meteorology while at the same

time improve its applications in aviation to keep us safe and surviving in space during travel is

the ultimate task for all historians of technology, engineering, meteorology and all citizens of

goodwill.

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customer-disruption/

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Friedman, R. (1990). Appropriating the Weather: Vilhelm Bjerknes and the Construction of a

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Gary, A. F. (2007). Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction. Chicago:

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Knowles, M. (1969). Invention of the meteorological instruments. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins

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Kreindler, L. (1994). Aviation Accident Law. New York: M. Bender.

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Nebeker, F. (1995). Calculating the Weather: Meteorology in the 20th Century. San Diego:

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APPENDIX A