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Running head：POLITICAL SCIENCE 1

Political Science

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Institution

POLITICAL SCIENCE 2

Question One

According to Michael Ross, single commodity natural resource states are likely to be

authoritarian. Ross provides the example of the relationship between oil wealth and regime

type to explain this hypothesis. There are three arguments that explain why oil and

authoritarian leadership are related. These causal mechanisms include the rentifier effect, the

repression effect and the modernization effect. According to the rentifier argument,

governments in oil nations use revenues from oil to relive social pressures that can trigger

demands for greater accountability.

In such countries, government obtains sufficient revenues from oil. As such, they

implement fewer taxes and the public, in turn, will less likely assess the accountability of the

government. This argument is backed up by evidence in France and England which show that

demand for democracy stems from attempts to raise taxes (Ross, 2001). however, other

scholars such as Waterbury argue that there is no relationship between tax and democracy.

Waterbury consists that produces revolts but does not pressure democracy (Ross, 2001). The

rentifier argument also encompasses the sending effect. Oil wealth increases spending on

patronage reducing pressures for democratization. Additionally, oil revenue provides the

government with sufficient money that hinders the formation of social groups which advocate

for democracy.

The repression effect shows that resource-rich states use the revenue to tighten

security in the nations. Therefore, while citizens in such nations may want democratization,

they are blocked by the internal security. Resources can result in large military forces for

example in Congo and Middle East (Ross, 2001). If an authoritarian government has the

opportunity to tighten its security, it will definitely do so out of pure interest. Additionally,

accumulation of resources results in regional and ethnic conflicts. Therefore, the government

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will respond using the military. Larger military forces may hinder democracy such as the way

military affected democratization in Congo, Nigeria, and Angola. For example, in Congo,

sufficient revenues facilitated the government to build u the armed forces and offer training to

special residential guards to help in maintaining order.

The third argument that explains the relationship between resource states and

authoritarian leadership is the modernization effect. There are various indicators of

democracy including urbanization, work specialization, and high levels of education among

others. For example, an educated population has enhanced bargaining power against the

elites. Therefore, it the development of the economy does not result in social and cultural

changes, then there will be no democracy. However, counter-arguments show that their no

link between economic development and democracy. If the link existed, then Libya and

Kuwait could be democratic countries. However, there is no disputing that education and

occupational specialization are connected to economic growth and democracy. Other scholars

such as Inglehart argue that meeting the health needs of the population increases the value so

of self-expression and ultimately democracy (Ross, 2001). All these factors are grounded on

modernization.

Question Two

According to the selectorate theory proposed by De Mesquita & Smith (2011), leaders

are affected by three groups of people. These people are the real selectorate, the nominal

selectorate, and the winning coalition. The nominal selectorate are people who influence the

choice of the leader, such as the registered voters. However, no individual voter can decide

who will lead a nation, therefore, members of the nominal selectorate do not have much say

in politics. Their choice is just to say yes or no and not to pick among the candidates. The real

selectorate is the group that actually chooses the leader. However, the winning coalition has

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much influence because their support translates to votes. Therefore, leaders must maintain

their winning coalition to remain in power.

The selectorate interacts with the authoritarian government in various ways. Although

the concepts of the winning coalition and the selectorate are easily identified in democratic

governments, the situation is less clear in authoritarian regimes (De Mesquita & Smith,

2011). Authoritarian leaders rule in a condition of uncertainty and threats from various

people. Therefore, different actors possess and influence different kinds of power. For

example, one person may mobilize support from common citizens while another may control

coercive forces. This implies that there is lack of a clear division between those who have the

power to select rulers.

De Mesquita & Smith (2011) asserts that size is a key factor in the winning coalition.

In an authoritarian regime, leadership change does not occur in a similar manner as in

democratic settings and this makes size a questionable factor for determining the next leader.

Most of the leadership transitions in authoritarian governments occur through assassinations,

popular uprising, foreign intervention, coups and regime change. Therefore, in such

circumstances where the selection is not determined by votes, size alone cannot be used to

measure owner. The problem arises whether to include all those who influence owner in the

winning coalition. For example, support to win may be needed form an important labor leader

or a general. If support is needed from an important labor. Single party regimes have small

winning coalitions (De Mesquita & Smith, 2011). However, the sizes of the winning coalition

and the selectorate in authoritarian regimes may be impossible.

Authoritarian regimes lack formal institutions for regularised political transition and

competition. Therefore, the importance of the selectorate in such regimes becomes unclear

because there are no collection of citizens who can threaten the survival of the leader. For

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example, in a democratic government, a leader risks losing power from losing in an election

or a vote of no confidence by the influencers (De Mesquita & Smith, 2011). A dictator, on the

other hand, can lose power in a mass uprising, military coup or assassination among others.

Under these extremes, it is hard to make distinctions between the selectorate and non-

members in an authoritarian regime. Authoritarians have greater threats external to the

selectorate.

Question Three

Based on what I have learned in this class and authoritarian governance, I believe that

authoritarianism is beginning to shape the politics of America. Authoritarian greatly

influences political behaviors. It refers to how people conform to norms and authority within

the groups that they identify with every day. Although authoritarian does not imply that

people want to reside in a totalitarian nation, people who prefer authoritarianism will not

easily tolerate those who violate norms or challenge authority. In America, there is a lot of

heightened nationalism, ethnic and racial prejudice and all these are related to authoritarian

(Hetherington & Weiler, 2009). So the question arises whether America is a democratic or

authoritarian regime.

There is a deep connection between authoritarian and arty or selectorate in America

currently. This type of regime has become more associated with Americans’ artisanship. The

people who value deterrence to existing authority and norms are more likely to support the

Republican Party. On the other hand, those who value such things less tend to side with the

Democratic Party. According to Hetherington & Weiler (2009), such trends in the current

American society have triggered issues where opinions are similar to those with

authoritarianism. For example, opinions such as terrorism have become more crucial to the

partisan divide.

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Presidential voting in America is correlated to authoritarianism. The whites prefer

republican governments more. For example, Trump’s election shows a connection between

party, partisanship, and authoritarianism. Partisanship is a danger to democracy. For example,

George Washington warned that factions or political parties will subvert democracy. The

current political polarization on left and right can result in the destruction of democratic

institutions and norms. For example, if the white Americans fear that democracy will benefit

marginalized people, then they won’t support democracy. For example, white people who do

not have different races living next door to them will more likely support authoritarianism

and this is where America is heading. Today, the Republicans are in full control of the federal

government ad this shows that there are signs of dictatorship rule in future. As per the

reading, having a high number of real selectorate is important to retain or change power (De

Mesquita & Smith, 2011). Based on the recent changes in the United States, it is evident that

a majority of the real selectorates support authoritarianism. If things do not change in future,

then the United States may be heading to an authoritarian regime.

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References

De Mesquita, B. B., & Smith, A. (2011). The dictator's handbook: why bad behavior is almost

always good politics. Public Affairs.

Hetherington, M. J., & Weiler, J. D. (2009). Authoritarianism and polarization in American

politics. Cambridge University Press.

Ross, M. L. (2001). Does oil hinder democracy?. World politics, 53(3), 325-361.

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