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Response Paper 2

This paper explores the political and development status of Kenya based on Collier’s

Trap theory. Kenya is a country located in the East Africa region, bordering Uganda, Sudan,

Somalia and Tanzania, with the Indian Ocean running along its south-eastern border. Its

official and national languages are English and Kiswahili respectively, but there are other 42

languages spoken there by 42 tribes. Since the country’s independence in 1

June 1963, its

political context has been heavily shaped by tribal crisis, high corruption, abuse of power,

long processes of constitutional reviews and recurrent post-election violence (Mwenzwa &

Misati, 2014). Women representation in the government and gender inequality has also been

very poor in Kenya. For instance, the country’s parliament in 2010 had only 10% women

representation, indicating one of the lowest incidences in the Eastern Africa region

(Mwenzwa & Misati, 2014). However, despite this poor political context, Kenya has had the

most diverse and the largest economy among the Eastern Africa countries since its

independence. Its human development index has also remained higher than the other

countries of this region, although very low when compared to the global average (Kinyanjui

& Josephine, 2013). The country was chosen for this discussion because it has shown great

potentials of development both in its political and social-economic context in the recent

years. Since, the country’s institution of a new constitution in 2010, the living condition,

economic growth, and equality has risen (Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). The country’s

establishment of the Long Term Policy Framework 1996-2020, the National Poverty

Education Plan 1999-2015, and the Kenya Vision 2030 Initiative have also helped a lot in

improving the living, working, and political conditions (Mwenzwa & Misati, 2014).

However, Kenya still have significant social-economic challenges barring it from coming out

of the lower second world category. Some of these challenges include: high population

growth rate, unequal distribution of resources and wealth, high rate of rural urban migration,

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poverty, high rate of unemployment, deforestation leading to distortion of rainfall patterns,

slow growth of domestic product, low literacy levels, among other problems (Kinyanjui &

Josephine, 2013). This essay addresses the social-economic and political situation of this

country by criticizing it against Collier’s trap theory.

In his book, The Bottom Billion, Collier presents three traps that prevent development

in the poor countries. Starting with, Collier argued that most of the developing countries are

still stuck in underdevelopment because they experience a conflict trap. According to Collier,

73% most of the poor populations are either in civil and tribal wars, or are recovering from

either of this (Collier, 2007). He argued that these wars occur in a vicious cycle causing a

vicious cycle of poverty among these populations. Essentially, civil and tribal wars cause

poverty in less developing countries, and then poverty causes frustration and tension leading

to more of these wars. According to Collier (2007), when people fight they destroy

infrastructure and scare away investors thus leading to low employment rates. Low

unemployment means less income and idleness which in turn leaves men angry and ready to

fight (Collier, 2007). In this regard, peace has to be a major factor to consider for the poor

countries to come out of poverty.

The conflict trap has been highly evident in Kenya and have been a major contributor

to the county’s poorly developed status. Since independence, Kenya has experienced a series

of tribal clashes and political violence that claim many lives, lead to the mass destruction of

property and infrastructure, and allow massive loss of personal belongings. For instance, the

country’s 1982 coup attempt lasted for about 12 hours, but it’s adverse ripple effects lasted

for half of the next decade (The World Bank, 2006). During these twelve hours, more than

100 soldiers and 200 civilians were killed and economic damage amounted to more than KSH

500 million (Johnson, Slater, & McGowan, 1984). Three years after the coup, the GDP

growth rate reduced significantly, with the totals annual GDP in 1983, 1984, and 1985,

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remaining lower than the annual GDP in 1979, 1980 and 1981 (World Development

Indicators, 2016). The GDP per capita and the human development index also remained very

low during the next four years after the attempted coup. The attempt also led into a sharp rise

in inflation from 11.6% in 1981 to 20.7% in 1982. The GNI per capita also remained

significantly lower four years after the coup attempt as compared to the values occurring four

years before the attempt (World Development Indicators, 2016).

The Kenya’s 1992 tribal clashes between the Kalenjin and the Kikuyu communities

also caused significant damage to the social-economic and the political condition of this

country. These tribal clashes were based on land ownership and political conflict. They lead

to the loss of more than 5000 people and displacement of about 75, 000 people from their

lands in Rift Valley Province of Kenya (The World Bank, 2006). After the clashes, Kenya

experienced what can be said as the most social-economic and political depressing moment in

its history. The country’s GDP dropped from $8.2 billion in 1992 to $5.7 billion in 1993. The

rate of inflation rose with double digit numbers in the following years from 19.8% in 1991 to

20.1% in 1992, and 27.3% in 1993, 46.0% in 1994 and 28.8% in 1994 (World Development

Indicators, 2016). The GDP growth rate reduced went down to a negative figure in 1992 and

remained relatively very low in the next five years. Also, Kenya’s human development index

remained very five years after the clashes (World Development Indicators, 2016). Essentially,

strong divisions were created between the Kalenjin and the Kikuyus, such that the

interactions and trade between them reduced significantly. Because the two tribes have had

the highest populations and the largest political influence in the Kenyan history, political

ideologies were also divided into two with the other tribes supporting either the Kikuyus or

the Kalenjin (Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). The Kenya’s 1998 tribal clashes where the

Kikuyu community fought against the Kalenjin and the Samburu communities also had the

similar effects although not as adverse as those of the 1992 (Holder & Raschky, 2014). They

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continued to widen the political differences between tribes in Kenya, and weakening the

relationship between tribal regions in the country. These disintegrations contributed highly

towards increasing the resource and wealth inequalities between the various regions of

Kenya, with tribes occupying regions neighbouring the Nairobi region getting richer than the

tribes occupying other regions (Holder & Raschky, 2014).

Another significant war incident in Kenya is the 2007-2008 post-election violence

where approximately 1500 people were killed, 3000 were sexually abused, 300,000 were

displaced from their homes, and thousands of houses and hundreds of vehicles were burnt

down (Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). After the violence, the rate of inflation rose by a double

digit from 9.8% in 2007 to 26.2% in 2008. The GDP growth rate reduced significantly and

remained very low in the next two years after the violence. The human development index

also reduced significantly and the deficit in the balance of payment increased abnormally by

more from -26, 717,027.6 US Dollars in 2006 to -693, 011, 390.5 US Dollars in 2007 (World

Development Indicators, 2016).

Kenya has also been facing other minor tribal clashes, for example in the North

Eastern province of Kenya where communities involve in historical tribal wars and cattle

raids. The communities living in this region remain primitive and under civilised because of

this tribal wars and raids (Mwenzwa & Misati, 2014). They still hold on to their primitive

cultures which hinders modernism in this region. For these reasons, these communities

remain poor and highly dependent on government aid (Mwenzwa & Misati, 2014). This

dependency keeps pulling the country behind in terms of National income and social

development. The communities also contribute less in political matters thus diminishing the

political context of the country (Holder & Raschky, 2014).

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Another thing that lead to the conflict trap in Kenya is the Al-Shabaab attacks that

have increased significantly over the recent years. Because of these attacks, investors have

pulled back their resources from vulnerable areas thus causing high levels of unemployment

in the country. The attacks have also discouraged tourists from visiting Kenya, thus reducing

the contribution of the tourism sector to the economy of the country (Kinyanjui & Josephine,

2013). Because of the attacks, the deficit of the balance of payment has kept on increasing

towards the negative side since 2010 when they started to the present time. For instance,

Kenya’s balance of payment was -70, 269, 794.4 US Dollars in 2009, but rose up to -1, 022,

812, 634.5 US Dollars in 2014 (World Development Indicators, 2016). This indicates that

foreign investors pulled back from the Kenyan market with the fear of losing their resources

in the attacks. The deficit also increased as the government had to borrow more in order to

boost security in the country. In addition, the attacks have resulted to becoming a tool that the

opposition government use to attack the standing government, thus leading to instability in

the political status of the country (Mwenzwa & Misati, 2014).

Another trap presented by Collier is the bad governance trap. On this trap, Collier

argued that three quarters of the bottom billion live in countries with non-functioning

governments or governments that exist only to benefit themselves. He estimates that each

failed costs the global economy about $100 billion (Collier, 2007). The Kenyan government

has been poorly functional with a lot of corruption and devious methods of entering into

power (Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). According to a research by Holder & Raschky (2014),

Kenya is one of the countries with the highest regional favouritism where the people in power

develops only the areas where they come from. Regional favouritism was highest in Kenya

during the era of the second president Daniel Arap Moi (Holder & Raschky, 2014). During

this period, most development projects were conducted in the Rift valley province, with other

provinces such as Western, Nyanza, and North Eastern having very low development. Most

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of the government jobs were also offered to the people of the Rift Valley Region (Kinyanjui

& Josephine, 2013). During the era of second president Mwai Kibaki, favouritism reduced a

bit, although the regions occupied by president Kibaki’s ethnic communities were still

favoured over the others (Holder & Raschky, 2014). In particular, the Central Province of

Kenya received most of the national development funds and projects. Most of the jobs in

parastatals and other government positions were also being given to the people living in the

Central Province (Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). Regional favouritism during this era was

influenced mostly by the 2007-2008 post-election violence which caused divisions between

political leaders and between the communities of Kenya. Because of these divisions, even the

private sectors were carrying our recruitment processes based on ethnic backgrounds

(Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). In the era of the current president of Kenya, Uhuru Kenyatta,

regional favouritism has increased, although not as much as during Moi’s era (Mwenzwa &

Misati, 2014). The reason why favouritism has not increased to that level is because of the

new constitution, which have given more powers to the media and the public (Mwenzwa &

Misati, 2014). Unlike in the past, the current citizens of Kenya now have more negotiating

power over their rights despite the tribe from which one is related to. This pattern of regional

favouritism is evident in the data of development indicators of Kenya. For instance, the GDP

growth rate was too low during the 1980s an d 1990s when president Moi was in power.

Some years even recorded zero point or negative GDP growth rates. From the year 2003 to

the year 2012, when president Mwai Kibaki was in power, the GDP growth rate remained

high, averaging at around 5%. This growth rate reduced significantly from 2013, when

president Uhuru Kenyatta entered in power. During this period, the GDP growth rate

averages at around 3% showing that favouritism increased (World Development Indicators,

2016).

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Another trap discussed by Collier is the landlocked trap. On this trap, Collier said that

38% of the poor countries remain poor because they are landlocked, which hinders effective

international trade (Collier, 2007). Although Kenya is not landlocked, its port is highly

underdeveloped and thus inefficient. Ships take a long time before they are offloaded, and the

management of the Kenya ports authority is one of the most corrupt management in this

country (Mwenzwa & Misati, 2014). This reduces the country’s access to international trade

thus lowering its social economic and political development.

Lastly, Collier argued that the exploration and mining of natural resources in poor

country makes them to remain poor. Poor countries do not have the manpower and the

machinery needed to explore natural resources such as oil. For this reason, most of the profit

coming out of these resources end up in bank accounts of mining companies of developed

nations (Collier, 2007). This is a huge problem because poor countries with natural resources

direct most of their attentions, manpower, and capital towards the natural resources and

forget to develop other sectors (Collier, 2007). Kenya is lucky as it has less of these resources

and therefore doesn’t experience this trap. However, there are rumours that this country

might soon start exploring oil that was discovered recently in Turkana County found in the

North Eastern Province of Kenya (Kinyanjui & Josephine, 2013). This exploration might lead

Kenya into a natural resource trap.

In a nutshell, the Collier’s trap theory perfectly explains the poor political and social-

economic development of Kenya. Three traps are evident in this country including the

conflict trap, the poor governance trap and the landlocked trap. The first two traps are the

main causes of less development in Kenya, while the landlocked trap exists because of poor

management and development of the Port of Mombasa in Kenya.

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References

Collier, P. (2007). The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What can

Be Done about It. New York : Oxford University Press.

Holder, R., & Raschky, P. A. (2014). Regional favoritism . The Quarterly Journal of

Economics, 1-39.

Johnson, T. H., Slater, R. O., & McGowan, P. (1984). Explaining African military coups

d'Etat, 1960-1982. The American Political Science Review, 78(3), 622-640.

Kinyanjui, K. D., & Josephine, M. (2013). Socio-economic status and participatory

development in Kenya. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 3(1),

184-193.

Mwenzwa, E. M., & Misati, J. A. (2014). Kenya’s social development proposals and

challenges: Review of Kenya Vision 2030 first medium-term plan, 2008-2012.

American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 4(1), 246-253.

The World Bank. (2006). Republic of Kenya Country Social Analysis. Nairobi: The World

Bank.

World Development Indicators. (2016). Retrieved from The World Bank :

http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?Code=NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG&id=

af3ce82b&report_name=Popular_indicators&populartype=series&ispopular=y#

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