The Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia 2030 Foresight Scenarios

Running head: SAUDI ARABIA 2030 FORESIGHT SCENARIOS 1

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 2030 Foresight Scenarios

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SAUDI ARABIA 2030 FORESIGHT SCENARIOS 2

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 2030 Foresight Scenarios

Based on research and analysis, scenarios predict future of the world. Their aim is to

identify significant events likely to occur in future, describe their repercussions and motivators,

and explain how they will shape the future. According to the World Energy Council (2016),

scenarios are tools that help better understand how the future will look like and what challenges

to expect. Developing scenarios enables to make assumptions, address major uncertainties,

widen perspectives by considering key factors, and come up with visionary strategies and

policies. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has also embraced the practice of documenting scenarios

(Vision 2030, n.d.). Decision makers analyze different factors in order to come up with policies

and strategies targeted to shape a prosperous future.

The first possible scenario is a change in political climate of Saudi Arabia. For instance,

the monarchy could fall and be replaced by a democratic government that provides inclusivity of

all the inhabitants of the nation irrespective of their religion: Muslims, Christians, Buddhists, or

others. Moreover, the Kingdom could fall victim of another Arab spring and follow the Tunisian

example in becoming a democratic country. It could trigger a second revolutionary wave like

that in 2011, which will impact neighboring countries in the region as well. However, there is

another potential outcome: the Arab leap could occur, and the government could recognize the

need for reforms. It can implement policies that can eventually lead to economic recovery, which

will ensure political stability and prosperous and peaceful future.

Further, Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of crude oil in the world. With current

technological advancements in the energy sector, such as invention of electric cars, and increased

use of solar and nuclear energy, the world will be less reliant on oil as source of energy for

powering machines in future (Kobb, 2016). In addition, discovery of other forms of energy such

SAUDI ARABIA 2030 FORESIGHT SCENARIOS 3

as Canadian tar sands and heavy oil in Venezuela will increase world oil reserves making Saudi

Arabia less significant.

According to the study conducted by U.S. Energy Information Administration (2017), the

Saudi Kingdom is projected to be exporting 16.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) unlike 23.8

mbpd. It will come as a result of a policy put in place to restrict the petroleum production to 12.5

mbpd, which is a way to protect the depletion of country’s oil reserves. Eventually, it will

translate to low revenues; therefore, the Kingdom should prepare itself to post-oil era. The

government could start selling a minority stake at Aramco, which is one of the largest oil

companies, and use the capital to diversify the economy and invest resources into other sectors,

such as manufacturing, to provide employment and generate revenue.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is an Islamic nation. Extremists’ Jihad groups, such as al-

Qaida, ISIS, and others, recruit unemployed youths with the promise of better lives. If this

situation is not managed, it will lead to grave outcomes. Thus, another scenario is the rise of

militias who will take over the government. It will be an era of terror for the Kingdom resulting

in deaths of hundreds if not thousands of people. Social media was a critical factor in influencing

the 2011 Arab revolution. Currently, a quarter of Saudis has access to the internet, but this figure

is expected to double by 2030 (Gaub & Laban, 2015). Ultimately, terrorism in Saudi Arabia

might spill over to neighboring countries in the Middle East destabilizing the region.

In addition, gender inequality is very pronounced in Saudi Arabia. For instance, women

are not allowed to drive. However, this policy is currently being reviewed, and soon they will

receive the permission. Although the progress is a bit slow, the number of women joining

businesses and politics is steadily growing. In future, with a democratic form of governance,

SAUDI ARABIA 2030 FORESIGHT SCENARIOS 4

there could even be a scenario of a woman being a president, which will symbolize maturity of

democracy for an Arab nation.

Table 1. Summary of Foresight Scenarios

Scenarios

Drivers and Enablers

Name

Econo

mic

Growth

Petroleu

Exports

Gender

Inequality

Political

Climate

Food

Shorta

ges

Unemplo

yment

Literacy

Levels

Techn

ology

Simmer

Impulsion

Transitional

Leap

H-high L-low P-positive N-negative

The table above shows the factors determining the scenarios of the future. Nevertheless,

it cannot be fully predicted as occurrence of events depends on different variables. Based on the

current state of affairs, simmer is the most feasible future: economic and political issues will be

contained and managed, and peace and stability will be maintained (Federal Institute for

Geosciences and Natural Resources, 2016). The worst-case scenario will be the impulsion. If

main economic issues, such as unemployment of youth, shortage of food, and terrorism, are not

addressed, it could result in nationwide disruptions leading to the fall of the monarchy.

Moreover, terroristic groups could use this to seize power. On the other hand, a leap scenario

could be witnessed. The government could acknowledge the urgent need for reforms. It will be a

transitional phase when new policies that outline inclusivity could be introduced. Ultimately, the

economy will recover, and it will lay foundation of a bright future.

SAUDI ARABIA 2030 FORESIGHT SCENARIOS 5

References

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources. (2016): Annual report: Reserves,

resources and availability of energy resources. BGR. Retrieved from

www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Energie/Downloads/energiestudie_2015_en.html

Gaub, F., & Laban, A. (Eds.). (2015). Arab futures: Three scenarios for 2025. EU Institute for

Security Studies. Retrieved from

https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/188691/Report_22_Arab_futures.pdf

Kobb, C. (2016). Saudi Arabia is planning for the post-oil era, why not the United States?

Resilience. Retrieved from http://www.resilience.org/stories/2016-05-22/saudi-arabia-is-

planning-for-the-post-oil-era-why-not-the-united-states/

U.S Energy Information Administration.(2017). International energy outlook 2017. EIA.

Retrieved from www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbprojects/IEDIndex3.cfm

World Energy Council. (2016). World energy scenarios 2016. World Energy. Retrieved from

https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/World-Energy-Scenarios-

2016_Full-Report.pdf

Vision 2030. (n.d.). Governance model for achieving Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. Vision 2030.

Retrieved from http://vision2030.gov.sa/en/node/259

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